Playing 3NT

This is a very confusing hand. As it happens, I was the only one bidding and making 3NT. And I am not particularly proud of it. In retrospect, I think 2NT is just the right contract here, because the game has less than 50% chance.

In the system I use with Lia, 2NT shows 18-19 points. If you upgrade the point count with the 5-card diamond length, even 26 points are possible. So, I decided to try 3NT. The same happened on 4 other tables. But they failed to make it.

Nobody likes 3NT contracts where 4 tricks are missing from the top. You have to rely on winners which need to be established first. Here, we have only the diamonds which might deliver 5 tricks. If we do not touch the spades ourselves, we get 1 more. Then we need 3 tricks clubs and hearts. We get at most 2 tricks in clubs, and thus need at least another one in hearts. So far the analysis.

Fortunately, West is on the lead. A destroying lead is a low spade, ducked by East. If West leads the ♠K and follows with a low spade, East will most likely find the correct defense and duck. But the spade lead is not easy to find here. Those, who always lead the unbid major, are lucky.

On my table, Lia led the ♦10. You can then safely cash your diamond winners and discover your initial suspicion that West holds four diamonds. East discards two clubs.

This should make you think hard about the chances you have. You have already counted the hand as above. You should do that even before starting to place the first card. 

There are only two reasonable lines of play.

• You can now cross to the table immediately in clubs. Think through what could happen next. If the crossing works, you can cash your diamonds and start establishing the hearts. But West will duck once, taking the second heart and establish the spades. You are one down. If it does not work because West has the ♣A, Lia will establish the four spade winners  and you are one down again.
• You must try to steal one trick in hearts by playing the ♥K. Lia can now take the Ace and establish the tricks in spades, which allows you take the diamond tricks. Then you need a 3-3 brake in hearts. If Lia ducks once, you cross to the ♣K. Now you make your contract safely.

I played the second options and made the contract.

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