Bidding on the Edge of the Knife?

This hand happened to me recently on IntoBridge. It shows how problematic Bridge can be. Or, maybe it shows how problematic you can make Bridge.

South opening 1♥ is an easy decision. Then West looks at his hand with a void in spade and four cards in the suit of the opponents, plus a good hand below opening strength. He wants to make life more difficult for N/S who very likely have a nice spade fit, albeit with a bad trump brake. 

West's first option is to throw in a lead directive bid with 2♣. N/S has only 8 tricks, because they will not have enough phantasy to finesse to the ♠9. And even then East will get to ruff a heart with the ♠10 at best play. So it is likely that E/W drive N/S into 4♠-2 for a better score than 4♣=. In MP, this is important, but in IMP it does not matter.  

The option that LIA choose is to block with 3♣. Lia on North decided that his hand is not enough to bid 3♠. The misfit in hearts does not look promising. But Lia on East bid 4♣ on its own. The only reason for this I can imagine is to block N/S even higher. After all, East is not expecting these defense tricks from West. Now, North has a tough time. As outlined above, it is unclear if it is better to pass or to try a game. I'd pass.

I keep asking myself what could be the most reasonable way to treat this hand? East's preemptive action with a hand that looks not like that, is just putting the board on the edge of the knife. In pairs with MP scoring, nobody can judge correctly what to bid. I much prefer the more fitting description 2♣. In team, there is nothing wrong to steal even a part score from N/S with a preemptive 3♣. 

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3NT or 4 in Major?

It happens from time to time that somebody beats your major game, just made, with 3NT+1 which counts 10 points more in MP scoring. I don't have any scientific data, and probably we don't need any. The theory is simple. If you can ruff once in the shorter hand, you have one trick more in a major game. With a 4-4 major fit, this happens almost any time. With 5-3, you need a shortage on the table opposite a suit which does not develop tricks on its own.

There is also the second argument, that a NT contract can fail easily if a weakly stopped suit is attacked. A trump prevents this disaster. In those cases even a 7-card fit in a major is safer. However, you need a solid point count or a good side suit in that case. Otherwise, it is wiser to stop lower.

In the hand above, the robot on North has a 5-3-3-2 distribution which is considered a balanced hand. The chance to find another balanced hand on my side is slim, however, because I did not use the NT scheme and opened a major. The fact, that Lia lied to me about the spades in the explanation of the bid, saying it has only 0-2 spades shows that this must be a bug.

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Playing 3NT

This is a very confusing hand. As it happens, I was the only one bidding and making 3NT. And I am not particularly proud of it. In retrospect, I think 2NT is just the right contract here, because the game has less than 50% chance.

In the system I use with Lia, 2NT shows 18-19 points. If you upgrade the point count with the 5-card diamond length, even 26 points are possible. So, I decided to try 3NT. The same happened on 4 other tables. But they failed to make it.

Nobody likes 3NT contracts where 4 tricks are missing from the top. You have to rely on winners which need to be established first. Here, we have only the diamonds which might deliver 5 tricks. If we do not touch the spades ourselves, we get 1 more. Then we need 3 tricks clubs and hearts. We get at most 2 tricks in clubs, and thus need at least another one in hearts. So far the analysis.

Fortunately, West is on the lead. A destroying lead is a low spade, ducked by East. If West leads the ♠K and follows with a low spade, East will most likely find the correct defense and duck. But the spade lead is not easy to find here. Those, who always lead the unbid major, are lucky.

On my table, Lia led the ♦10. You can then safely cash your diamond winners and discover your initial suspicion that West holds four diamonds. East discards two clubs.

This should make you think hard about the chances you have. You have already counted the hand as above. You should do that even before starting to place the first card. 

There are only two reasonable lines of play.

• You can now cross to the table immediately in clubs. Think through what could happen next. If the crossing works, you can cash your diamonds and start establishing the hearts. But West will duck once, taking the second heart and establish the spades. You are one down. If it does not work because West has the ♣A, Lia will establish the four spade winners  and you are one down again.
• You must try to steal one trick in hearts by playing the ♥K. Lia can now take the Ace and establish the tricks in spades, which allows you take the diamond tricks. Then you need a 3-3 brake in hearts. If Lia ducks once, you cross to the ♣K. Now you make your contract safely.

I played the second options and made the contract.

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