3NT or 4 in Major?

It happens from time to time that somebody beats your major game, just made, with 3NT+1 which counts 10 points more in MP scoring. I don't have any scientific data, and probably we don't need any. The theory is simple. If you can ruff once in the shorter hand, you have one trick more in a major game. With a 4-4 major fit, this happens almost any time. With 5-3, you need a shortage on the table opposite a suit which does not develop tricks on its own.

There is also the second argument, that a NT contract can fail easily if a weakly stopped suit is attacked. A trump prevents this disaster. In those cases even a 7-card fit in a major is safer. However, you need a solid point count or a good side suit in that case. Otherwise, it is wiser to stop lower.

In the hand above, the robot on North has a 5-3-3-2 distribution which is considered a balanced hand. The chance to find another balanced hand on my side is slim, however, because I did not use the NT scheme and opened a major. The fact, that Lia lied to me about the spades in the explanation of the bid, saying it has only 0-2 spades shows that this must be a bug.

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